The below informstion was published in November as it relates to the past month's perfromance and business outlook.

Business confidence plunged in October. A net 42 percent of respondents now expect general business conditions to deteriorate over the coming year. That’s a massive 44 point turnaround from September and is the largest one month fall in the history of the survey. Every sector is now dismal about the future, and every sector contributed: retailing down 50 points, construction 33, manufacturing 31, agriculture 30, and services down an eye-popping 55 points.

The picture is just as grim across the remainder of the survey. Firms’ own activity expectations fell from plus 17 to minus 11. This is the second lowest on record (the all time low is minus 19 in April 1988) and the largest intra-month decline. Employment intentions dropped to a historical low. A net 21 percent of respondents expected fewer staff, down 15 points, and hit a historical nadir. The negative streak has extended to nine months. Investment intentions are now minus 13, and profit expectations fell to a net minus 32 percent. Export intentions went from plus 29 to plus 11.

Fewer respondents expect lower interest rates, with a net 49 percent expecting lower interest rates in the year ahead – down from a net 63 percent last month. This is not necessarily a sign that they see less chance of a reduction in the official cash rate – set by the Reserve Bank – but they are wary as to the offsetting influence the global scene may have on rates.

Contribution from the National Bank of New Zealand