Thursday January 04, 2007

Back in 1998, the late Rt Hon David Lange dropped a bombshell with his statement that Pakeha New Zealanders would one day be the minority in this country. His comments came after the decline in the polls of the popularity of Winston Peters, after he had peaked in 1996 at 18 per cent following his anti-Asian stance.

Soon after Mr Lange's statement, I was invited to appear with him on the long-running TV programme Asia Downunder, the only programme with a focus on Asian New Zealanders. When I asked him why he had said what he did, he told me that he wanted to "prepare" Pakeha.

Since then I have come to the conclusion that his statement also prepared Asian Kiwis like myself for the inevitable backlash that the growth in our numbers would release - so we could have ready the reasons people should not be afraid of this.

The latest release of data from the Census has attracted predictable media coverage, given that between 2001 and 2006, the Asian group was the fastest-growing population group, at 49 per cent.

These figures are not surprising for those who follow immigration trends and migration statistics.

However, the forecast that Asians will overtake the Maori population by 2021, to become the second-largest minority group, is unlikely to occur on two counts.

First, the Asian group does not share a common language, and before long more specific groups like Chinese, Indian and Koreans will emerge in their own right from behind the "Asian" tag.

Secondly, the changes made to immigration policy by the Labour Government in 2002 have resulted in a sharp downturn in the number of Asian immigrants, and we won't see them in the same numbers as in the early part of this century unless there is a policy change.

Labour's decision to require higher levels of English, and job offers for work in New Zealand, has been a backhand slap to our Asian communities, yet the Government continue to attend their functions, eat their food and praise their contribution to New Zealand. Labour needs to get real.

The number of net long-term Asian arrivals in the years to March 2002 was 20,214. Contrast this with arrivals for the year to March 2006 of 3153 and you can see that the predictions of Asians overtaking Maori do not stack up.

That I even have to debunk this comment is in itself bizarre. What is there to fear?

In the past week, reporters have asked me many questions about the forecast increase in the Asian population, and some of those questions were peppered with an unspoken apprehension about the effect of such an increase.

Despite me asking them what was there to fear, the feeling prevailed. I wonder if it would have helped if I'd told them we wouldn't make using chopsticks compulsory.

Having been part of a minority culture for over 30 years, I have not found life threatening, even though it may be frustrating. It's like being a soccer fan in a sea of Kiwi rugby supporters - you can still enjoy soccer and watch games (even if they are at odd times in the morning), while retaining your own identity.

The reality for New Zealand - our country - is that the world is getting smaller, and individuals who have acquired skills and the know-how to apply them in a global context will be in demand all over the world.

The challenge our country faces is not which group is bigger than the other, but that we won't be able to attract or retain go-getters who have the confidence to invest in our country to create employment and opportunities so we can enjoy our First World lifestyle.

Along with the population statistics, the latest Census revealed that 43.2 per cent of people who are aged 15 years and over had an annual income of $20,000 or less.

It is illogical to be debating the size of ethnic groups when we should be looking at ways to boost the wages of our lowest income earners. That is the real debate New Zealand should be having - because it affects New Zealanders of all backgrounds.

* Pansy Wong is National's Ethnic Affairs spokesperson.