17/12/14 - Treasury forecasts 9pc growth over three years

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But the tipped surplus for current year turns into deficit under reduced tax take.

The Treasury delivered a cheerful set of economic forecasts in its half-year update yesterday.

While it has shaved 0.3 percentage points off its estimate for economic growth in the year to March 2015, compared with its pre-election update (Prefu) in August, it has revised up its forecasts for the next two years.

The net effect is it now has the economy expanding by a cumulative 9 per cent over the three years to March 2017, up from a cumulative 8.2 per cent four months ago.

While that is higher than the consensus among nine forecasting operations polled by NZIER, it is marginally softer than the cumulative 9.3 per cent forecast by the Reserve Bank last week.

Like the bank, the Treasury has also revised up its estimate of the potential or non-inflationary growth rate the economy can handle at this stage to just under 3 per cent a year, as a surge in net immigration swells the labour supply and strong business investment boosts productivity. It expects inflation not to reach 2 per cent until 2016 and to stay there or thereabouts for the following three years.

In terms of the drivers of growth, business investment is expected to be almost as important as private consumption over the next two or three years.

The Treasury expects the annual net inflow of migrants to peak at 52,500 in March next year, but acknowledges it may turn out to be higher. Even so it expects the unemployment rate, currently 5.4 per cent, to drop below 5 per cent in 2016, and wage growth to remain positive in real terms over the next five years.

A potential downside risk to its growth forecasts is that the recovery in dairy prices it expects to see next year may not eventuate.

On the other hand the forecasts, finalised just over a month ago, do not include the subsequent steep fall in oil prices. They assume that the oil price will fall from US$100 a barrel to US$83 over the next four years. Currently it is around US$57.

Finance Minister Bill English acknowledged the hit to incomes - and his tax base - from the halving of export dairy prices since February. But he pointed to the 53 per cent of ANZ's commodity price index which is not made up of dairy products and is up 14.5 per cent on a year ago. As well as the impact from lower dairy prices, the Government's tax revenue this year and in subsequent years will be reduced by lower inflation which is, English noted, a global phenomenon.

Despite the stronger outlook for real growth, compared with Prefu, nominal gross domestic product (a proxy for the tax base) is forecast to be a cumulative $13 billion lower over the next four years.

Tax revenue is accordingly expected to be a cumulative $2.4 billion lower over that period, and the Treasury is no longer forecasting a $300 million fiscal surplus for the current year but rather a deficit of $600 million.

But over the same four years the Government's operating expenses are expected to be $3.1 billion lower than in the Prefu. Lower inflation is expected to mean lower wage growth, to which New Zealand Superannuation is indexed, and lower interest rates, reducing the Government's interest bill.

Bank of New Zealand head of research Stephen Toplis sees some risk the Treasury's real GDP forecasts over the medium term could prove too optimistic as the flow-on impacts of lower dairy prices, the moderation in the marginal contribution from the Canterbury rebuilding, eventual lower net migration inflows and higher interest rates conspire to weaken growth.

"There are no financial market implications," Toplis said, "except to the extent that the fiscal accounts and forecasts continue to show New Zealand in a good light.

"This implies that the risk premium on New Zealand assets can fall further and the New Zealand dollar remains supported."

There were no changes to planned bond issuance.

ASB economist Nathan Penny said that in any case New Zealand long-term rates were likely to remain constrained by both the current low level of global bond yields and the long pause before any further official cash rate increases, which ASB expects to resume late next year.

(Source NZ Herald, BFallow) 

09/12/14 - PM says Chinese real estate investment minor

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A predicted surge in Chinese investment in New Zealand residential real estate is something the Government needs to consider, but at the moment such investment is not a significant issue Prime Minister John Key says.

Amid growing calls for a register of offshore based home buyers, Simon Henry, chief executive of international property website Juwai recently said Chinese appetite for New Zealand real estate was set to grow.

Responding to claims Chinese investors are a significant presence in the Auckland property market, Mr Key yesterday said the overwhelming bulk of Chinese at auctions would be New Zealand residents or citizens from "Pakuranga or Torbay".

"That pattern could change over time. I accept that as China gets wealthier and other countries get wealthier they may look to spread their wings a bit more, and that's an issue that New Zealand like every other country has to consider both the pros and cons of that because there's a bit both ways." 

While investors have been blamed for pushing up prices, Mr Key put recent surge in Auckland house prices down to improving confidence in the economy following the September election.

"Typically consumers stop buying and businesses stop economic activity in the month or two prior to the election as they wait to see what actually happens and what the result is, and given there was quite a significant change in tax policy between the Labour

Opposition and ourselves it's hardly surprising that some people were waiting to see."

Mr Key said improving confidence was apparent in other areas of the economy.

"It's also true for instance that car dealers have been telling me they've been very busy post the election and were quite quiet for a couple of months prior to it."

Mr Key underscored comments by his Finance Minister Bill English last week that his Government was keeping an eye on Australian moves to establish a register of foreign home buyers.

"If there's a credible register we're not afraid of such a thing, we're just saying we don't think that's the answer to the issues. All a register would give you is arguably a bit better information on what's happening and that might be of merit but realistically for us tackling the housing issue - which we're doing I think very effectively - still sits in that issue of release of land and speeding up the supply of new product."

NZ First Leader Winston Peters said other political parties were now crying "crocodile tears" over the issue of foreign real estate investment, "but when New Zealand First argued for a register of foreign land and house ownership some of their members called New Zealand First xenophobic and racist".

"We ignored that and have long had a bill on the issue of foreign ownership in the parliamentary ballot."

Mr Peters said Chinese and other overseas investors shouldn't be blamed for wanting to buy property in this country, "when we've put the welcome mat out along with flashing neon signs".

"Favourable tax treatment for foreign investment explains why we're now the fifth most preferred market for Chinese investors.

"If New Zealand does not react, this current overseas investment will become an offshore consumer flood."

(Source NZ Herald Adam Bennett)

09/12/14 - Project Auckland: Infrastructure key to liveability

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Rising up the international liveability list is a challenge worth achieving, Aecom's John Bridgman tells Bill Bennett.

Auckland already ranks as the world's tenth best place to live according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's Liveability Index.

John Bridgman, managing director of Aecom New Zealand, a professional technical services firm, says with the right infrastructure in place, Auckland could go further up the list.

He says that's a challenge worth meeting because the top ranked cities attract high quality investment, immigration and interests in the products they sell. Together these will boost the city's economy and create more jobs.

The EIU's index covers 140 cities around the world and ranks them based on the quality of life. Melbourne tops the list with Vienna in second place. Australia has four of the top 10: Sydney and Adelaide also feature, while Perth sits at nine, one place ahead of Auckland.

To create the index, the EIU looked at 30 factors, including things like stability, healthcare, culture, environment, educational resources and infrastructure.

These are crunched down to a single score out of 100: the ideal. Auckland's score is 95.7.

Bridgman says Auckland ranks well in each individual department, but is weakest in infrastructure, scoring 92.9. The Australian cities are on 100. He says if the city could lift its infrastructure ranking to the Australian level it would move five or so places up the table pushing Auckland well ahead of Perth.

When measuring infrastructure, the EIU scores cities on the quality of their road, public transport and telecommunications networks along with the international links. It also looks at the availability of good quality housing, energy and water provisioning.

Bridgman says Auckland has the ability to improve most of these areas. "The things that will shift that dial are the City Rail Link, freight transport and resilience in our water and electricity supply. Also housing affordability. These are all things people are trying to address".

He says though others might see infrastructure as Auckland's vulnerability, it is an opportunity.

"The Super City has done some great things. It's allowed us to get some forward momentum on these areas.

"The fear is that we think we've solved it: putting in the Western Ring Rd means we've fixed things, whereas we need to continue the momentum."

Continuing the momentum is partly about being able to provide funding and partly about our ability to allow projects to get up from a planning perspective.

Economic valueBridgman says being recognised as one of the world's most liveable cities is so economically valuable that we shouldn't let debates about funding and other matters that slow the infrastructure build get in the way of maintaining momentum.

"It's right to have debates about funding, but they need to support the goals rather than becoming the key issue.

Debates about resource management and planning are also important but they need to support the major tenet, which is making the city a much better place".

He says the message about the importance of a city's infrastructure in the context of creating a liveable city has yet to resonate with Aucklanders: "Discussion tends to be about how we have a cafe society or how the waterfront is nice".

Building infrastructure makes a city liveable; it also underpins economic development. Bridgman says the Western Ring Rd has already done a lot for development, with more to come when it is completed. He says: "Other projects now need to happen: the East-West Link and Ameti [the Auckland Manukau Eastern Transport Initiative]. The investments are critical. They have the ability to lift Auckland and national GDP".

FundingWhen it comes to funding, Bridgman says we need to recognise the value the private sector can bring through its investment. He quotes the report back from a recent New Zealand Council for Infrastructure Development study tour to Britain which found a much greater acceptance of private sector investment in infrastructure, leading to a far quicker time to market. There's evidence of the same results coming from Australia.

Bridgman says there are ways to get that private investment in infrastructure: PPPs (public private partnerships) like with the Transmission Gully road project in Wellington are one approach.

New Zealand's consultation processes remain a barrier to getting the necessary infrastructure built quickly. Bridgman says here the emphasis is on letting all parts of the community comment on a project and that process tends to shape the end result.

He says overseas the emphasis tends to be more on shortening the process and then finding ways to mitigate the problems.

He would like to see New Zealand move to a model where public debate centres on the overall plan, not project detail.

He says Auckland's infrastructure planning has to align better with central government; this is a matter of leadership on both sides and that is now improving, but there's still scope for better alignment.

(Source NZ Herald Bill Bennett)

19/11/14 - Change to selection process for Investor 2 applications

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Until recently, Immigration New Zealand (INZ) has been able to select all Expressions of Interest (EOI) from the Investor 2 category pool in order to fulfil the existing cap of 300 application approvals. However, because of growing interest and increased numbers of EOIs in this category, this approach is no longer sustainable. 

Clarification to immigration instructions come into effect on 27 November to reflect that only the highest scoring applications will be selected from the pool in order to fulfil the existing application approval cap.

The pool draw will continue to take place every second Wednesday and pool draw details, including the number of EOIs and points range selected, will continue to be published in the Latest News section of the INZ website.

(Source INZ)

18/11/14 - Change to bonus points for Entrepreneur Work Visas

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From 27 November 2014 there will be a change under the Entrepreneur Work Visa (EWV) Category bonus points for potential new businesses. 

Businesses proposing to locate in Auckland will no longer be able to claim 20 bonus points on the basis of having been granted formal support from a local agency, e.g. a business development agency, local council or Chamber of Commerce. 

Businesses will still be able to claim 20 bonus points for being based outside of Auckland. 
 
This change has been made to promote regional development, by allowing only potential businesses in EWV applications based outside Auckland to be granted 20 bonus points.
 
For the NEW points table as from 27 November 2014, please click here

(Source INZ)

29/10/14 - e-Medicals introduced by INZ

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e-Medical

• From 24 November, 2014, Immigration New Zealand will join eMedical, an online immigration health processing system developed by Australia’s Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) and Citizenship and Immigration Canada. eMedical will replace INZ’s existing paper-based medical certificates, and will be used by INZ’s panel physicians.
• eMedical is used by panel physicians to record results of an applicants’ immigration medical examination. This information is provided to Immigration New Zealand through a secure online channel.

Why eMedical?

• eMedical will save time and costs for Immigration New Zealand and our customers. It provides a secure online channel for a visa applicant’s health information. In most cases, this information will not need manual assessment by immigration officers.
• The current paper-based manual process for processing and assessing immigration health information is slow and costly and it’s a significant barrier to achieving timely visa decisions.
• About 20 per cent of visa applicants require a physical health assessment as part of their application. Currently, these assessments are completed by approved panel physicians in the migrant’s home country, and then migrants submit the hard-copy medical certificate with their application. This information is then handled and assessed by Immigration New Zealand staff and, in some cases, onshore medical assessors.

What are the benefits of eMedical?

• Eliminating paper medical certificates will help Immigration New Zealand cut application processing times, reducing administrative overhead costs and client follow-up queries.
• eMedical will shorten the referral process required when an applicant’s medical certificate must be reviewed by a medical assessor. Requests for additional information will be electronically channelled back through eMedical to the applicant’s panel physician, improving the customer experience by eliminating the current Immigration New Zealand’s “middle man” step.

When will eMedical be introduced?

• eMedical will be rolled out in a staged approach from November 24, with the system and new business processes tested on a group of six offshore countries in the first stage. These countries are Cambodia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam.
• eMedical will have a second rollout stage at the end of January 2015 to all offshore eMedical-enabled countries. The final rollout stage will be onshore in New Zealand from the end of March 2015, coinciding with the establishment of Immigration New Zealand’s new onshore panel physician network.
• From the end of March 2015, the majority of medicals in support of a visa application will be submitted electronically by Immigration New Zealand’s panel physicians and be triaged, and decided in most cases by the Immigration Health System.

Who will be able to use eMedical?

• Physicians who are members of Immigration New Zealand’s panel physician networks when eMedical is implemented. In addition the panel physician network overseas, Immigration New Zealand will be establishing a panel physician network (including radiologists) within New Zealand, which physicians will be offered the opportunity to join. More information for physicians both overseas and in New Zealand will be available in May 2014.

(Source INZ)

22/10/14 - First NZ job fairs in November

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The Government has announced that a series of job fairs will be held in capital cities across Australia to encourage more Kiwis to return home and Australians to settle here to help fill emerging skills gaps and support thriving New Zealand-based businesses.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, together with international employment event organiser Working In, will be hosting the first two expos in Perth on 22-23 November and Sydney on the 29-30 November. Further events will follow in Melbourne and Brisbane in the first quarter of next year.

Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment Minister Steven Joyce says some New Zealand employers, particularly in the construction, engineering, and ICT sectors, are finding it hard to recruit sufficient skilled and experienced workers.

“We are training a lot more people in these targeted areas. However some of the companies are growing at a very fast rate as our economy grows, and we don’t want to restrict their capacity to keep growing,” Mr Joyce says.

“These targeted job expos build on the success of similar events in the United Kingdom and Ireland and will expand the pool of potential candidates for New Zealand employers wanting to grow their businesses.

“For many people Australia and New Zealand are becoming one labour market. We’ve donated lots of our people to work over there in the last twenty years.  Now with our economy doing better, it’s time to get more people moving back the other way.”

Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse says, “The Government has been very successful in attracting new skilled migrants to New Zealand and we hope these job fairs will build on that.”

Mr Woodhouse says a six week campaign launched last month to attract New Zealanders, Australians and other nationals who have the skills New Zealand “tech” companies need is already paying dividends.

The www.innovationislands.co.nz website tells New Zealand’s unique tech story and highlights the diverse range of opportunities available here.

More than 80 companies are taking part and halfway through the campaign 1,360 job applications have already been received.

“The campaign has been a great success and I’m confident that this initiative along with the job expos will lead to a significant number of Kiwis coming home and making the most of this country’s growing economy,” Mr Woodhouse says.

(Source Steven Joyce, Michael Woodhouse, Beehive)

21/10/14 - Migration soars to new record in September

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New Zealand's annual net migration rose to a record in September, beating government forecasts, as the inflow was spurred by student arrivals from India and Kiwis returning home from Australia.

The country gained a net 45,400 migrants in the year ended September 30, the biggest ever gain, according to Statistics New Zealand. Annual arrivals rose to 105,500, a record for a September year, while departures fell 21 per cent from the previous year to 60,100. Meanwhile, the net loss of 6000 people to Australia was down from 25,300 for the same period a year earlier.

Sept Migration - Where are the new NZers coming from?

NZ recorded a net 45,400 migrants in the year ended Sep 30 - the biggest ever gain. Indian arrivals jumped 60pc in the year.

• Philippines 3,400
• UK 5,300
• China 7,000
• India 9,100

In August, the Treasury revised its forecast for net migration to peak at 42,500 in September, from a previous 38,100, while the Reserve Bank thinks strong migration will add 50,000 people to the labour force over the next two years.

The central bank has been surprised by the "muted impact" record inflows have had on house price inflation so far, which it says hasn't lead to as big a gain in property prices as in the past. This may be down to the composition of the migration flows, which have been characterised by fewer New Zealanders leaving for Australia as well as more returning from across the Tasman, and younger people coming on temporary working visas.

Today's figures show people arriving from India jumped 60 per cent in the year to 10,287, overtaking China as the third-largest source of long-term arrivals. Australia remained the biggest source, with a 25 per cent increase in the year to 22,596 people arriving, although that figure includes locals returning home, Statistics NZ said. The United Kingdom is the second-largest source, although arrivals fell 3.4 per cent to 13,686 long-term arrivals in the year.

In the month, New Zealand gained a seasonally adjusted 4700 net migrants in September, matching August's record inflow. There was a net loss of 68 people to Australia in the month, from a net outflow of 71 people in August, well below the peak monthly net loss of 4300 migrants across the Tasman in February 2001.

The number of short-term arrivals rose 1 per cent to 193,000 in September from the same month a year earlier, and was the second-highest ever for a September month, eclipsed only by the same month in 2011 during the Rugby World Cup. On an annual basis, visitor arrivals rose 5 per cent to 2.8 million from a year earlier, boosted by tourists from Australia, the US and Germany.

New Zealanders heading off on short overseas trips rose 4 per cent to 219,700 in the month from a year earlier and was the highest ever for a September month, with more trips to Australia, Indonesia and Fiji recorded, Statistics NZ said. Annually, short term departures rose 3 per cent to 2.24 million in the year.

(Source NZ Herald, BusinessDesk)

13/10/14 - Isis fight: NZ's threat level rises from 'very low' - Key

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New Zealand's national threat level in response to risk posed by foreign fighters and Isis has gone from "very low'' to ''low'' Prime Minister John Key said this afternoon but the Government will advance ''urgent'' law changes in response anyway.

Mr Key said Cabinet had today approved terms of reference for a a review of settings in relation to ''foreign terrorist fighters''.

Such fighters taking part in or returning from conflict zones were a concern for many countries Mr Key said.

''Our intelligence agencies are aware of the risk and and focused on addressing it.''

The number of New Zealanders fighting in such situations was ''modest'' but ''significant relative to New Zealand's size and they do represent a change in the New Zealand context''.

Mr Key said the risk was foreign fighters returned to New Zealand ''radicalised and with military training''.

Mr Key said New Zealand's national threat level had now been increased by officials from Very Low to Low, ''which means that where previously the threat of a terrorist attack was assessed as unlikely, it is now assessed as possible but not expected''.

Mr Key said the fact the matter was considered at the first Cabinet meeting of his new Government today ''underscored the importance we are placing on this issue''.

In light of the ''rapidly evolving environment'' Cabinet had told officials to review settings ''in relation to how we deal with the foreign fighter threat''.

Minister in charge of the SIS and GCSB Chris Finlayson said the review was expected to take about four weeks.

Any legislative changes would be interim measures which would be superseded by law changes flowing from a formal review of New Zealand's intelligence agencies next year.

Mr Key said the domestic threat level had gone up because of the ''changing international environment''.

Mr Key said the current level of domestic alert was as high as it had ever been but was the same as was temporarily put in place during the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

The review would consider whether the capacity and capabilities of the SIS and other government agencies were sufficient to undertake effective and efficient investigations of suspected and returning foreign terrorist fighters, and other violent extremists.

Mr Finlayson said it was correct to say that the rise of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and their recruitment of foreign fighters had the potential to fan domestic threats in New Zealand.

Mr Key said he had written to the leaders of other parties to offer them a confidential briefing from officials on the issues the review would address.

Mr Key said there were foreign fighters who had returned from conflict zones to New Zealand but he wasn't prepared to say how many.

(Source NZ Herald, Adam Bennett)

06/10/14 - New National-led Administration announced

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Prime Minister John Key today announced the National-led Government’s new Ministry as it prepares to begin its third term in office.

“There is a lot of work ahead to continue implementing our plans to build a stronger economy, reduce debt and create more jobs,” Mr Key says.

“The new Ministry builds on the experience of the past two terms in office, and combines experience with some fresh talent.

“A number of Ministers have had significant portfolio changes, reflecting the need to give Ministers new challenges as well as providing a fresh set of eyes in some portfolio areas.”

Mr Key says a number of Ministers have been promoted either to the front bench, or further up the front bench, to reflect their strong performance in recent years and their promise for the future.

“Paula Bennett has been promoted to number five in the rankings, and picks up State Services, Social Housing and Associate Finance in addition to retaining her Local Government portfolio.

“Dr Jonathan Coleman becomes Minister of Health, and also picks up the Sport and Recreation portfolio, which will link nicely together.

“Amy Adams and Simon Bridges are promoted to the front bench, both with significant new responsibilities. Ms Adams becomes Justice Minister and Mr Bridges Transport Minister.

“Christopher Finlayson remains Treaty Negotiations Minister and Attorney-General, while picking up significant new responsibilities in the intelligence area. He becomes Minister in Charge of the NZ Security Intelligence Service and Minister Responsible for the GCSB, working closely with me in my new role as Minister for National Security and Intelligence.

“In this role I will continue to be responsible for leading the national security system, including policy settings and the legislative framework. Mr Finlayson will operate within the framework I set and exercise ministerial oversight of the NZSIS and GCSB, including approval of warrants.

“Officials have examined models used overseas and what we are adopting is very similar to what is seen with our closest partners.

“Housing continues to be a key area of focus for the Government, and a Ministerial team of Bill English, Paula Bennett and Nick Smith has been assembled to lead that work. Mr English will have direct responsibility for Housing New Zealand; Ms Bennett will focus on social housing, while Dr Smith will work on housing affordability and construction issues. The Social Housing portfolio will have responsibility for the government’s social housing functions, and for its relationship with the social housing sector.

Other changes include:

• Gerry Brownlee becomes Minister of Defence, while retaining the role of Leader of the House and his Canterbury Earthquake Recovery and EQC portfolios.
• Anne Tolley becomes Minister for Social Development.
• Dr Nick Smith becomes Minister for the Environment.
• Nikki Kaye becomes Minister for ACC.
• Michael Woodhouse becomes Minister of Police. He also becomes Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety – a new portfolio title to reflect the modern focus of what had previously been the Labour portfolio.
• Jo Goodhew becomes Minister for Food Safety.

Mr Key says, in announcing his new line up, three new Ministers will be appointed. Maggie Barry is to go straight into Cabinet as Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage, Minister of Conservation and Minister for Senior Citizens. Louise Upston and Paul Goldsmith will be Ministers outside Cabinet holding a variety of portfolios.

“Two ministers previously outside Cabinet have been promoted to Cabinet. Todd McClay will be Minister of Revenue and Minister for State Owned Enterprises, while Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga will be Minister of Corrections, Minister for Ethnic Communities and Minister for Pacific Peoples.

“Craig Foss remains a Minister, but will now serve outside Cabinet as Minister for Small Business, Minister of Statistics and Minister of Veteran’s Affairs.

“Chester Borrows will not be appointed to the new Ministry. He will, however, be National’s nominee for Deputy Speaker, and I want to thank Chester for his service as a Minister,” Mr Key says.

A number of Ministers continue largely in their current portfolio responsibilities. These include Steven Joyce in Economic Development, Hekia Parata in Education, Murray McCully in Foreign Affairs, Nathan Guy in Primary Industries, Tim Groser in Trade and Climate Change, and Nicky Wagner in Customs.

“The support party Ministerial and Under Secretary roles have already been announced, but I want to acknowledge again their contribution to the formation of a strong, stable National-led Government.”

Mr Key says the National Caucus will meet tomorrow (Tuesday 7 October) to elect its three whips for the coming parliamentary term.

The new Ministry will be sworn in at Government House in Wellington at 11am on Wednesday morning.

(Source Beehive)