04/11/15 - World Split on Whether Immigrants Take Jobs Away

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A worthwhile article for discussion and information

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03/11/15 - New rules for Filipino dairy workers

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Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse today announced new rules for Filipino dairy workers who may have provided incorrect information relating to their qualifications and experience with their original work visa applications.

“Today I approved amendments to immigration instructions to allow further work visas to be granted to those workers who admit to previously providing incorrect information,” Mr Woodhouse says.

Under the new immigration instructions, applicants who admit to previously providing incorrect information but who are compliant in all other respects will be eligible to be granted a further work visa, as long as they meet all other Essential Skills requirements.

“This approach acknowledges that many of these workers are making a significant contribution to their employers and their communities and are well-settled in New Zealand. It also accepts the admission of having provided incorrect information by workers who come forward.

“The changes minimise the disruption that would have been caused by a significant number of workers having their visas declined.

“However, I want to make it clear that these workers are not guaranteed that new visa applications will be successful and they may need to meet a labour market test to check whether there are any New Zealanders available to do their job.

“In addition, further visa applications from these workers could be declined if they do not meet other standard health and character requirements, or if their employer has had compliance issues with immigration or employment law.”

(Source Beehive)

01/11/15 - Immigration changes for regions into effect

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New measures designed to improve the spread of workers, skills and investment across New Zealand come into effect today.

“The changes, which were announce in July this year, will encourage skilled migrants and entrepreneurs to settle outside Auckland,” says Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse.

“New Zealanders will always be first in line for jobs. But we recognise that for skilled roles that are hard to fill in certain regions we should be doing more to attract and retain high calibre migrants to help those regions grow.

The changes include:

• Tripling the bonus points for Skilled Migrants applying for residence with a job offer outside Auckland from 10 to 30 points.
• Doubling the points for entrepreneurs planning to set up businesses in the regions under the Entrepreneur Work Visa from 20 to 40 points.
• Streamlining the labour market test to provide employers with more certainty, earlier in the visa application process.

“While there will be more incentives for skilled migrants to move to the regions, they will now need to stay there for a minimum of 12 months.

“Improving the regional focus of the Entrepreneur Work Visa will boost the number of migrants moving to the regions with business experience, capital investment and job creation credentials.

“The streamline labour market test, which has already been rolled out in Queenstown, allows employers to check directly with Work and Income before lodging a migrant visa application, providing more certainty for employers and migrants, as they will know sooner if a work visa application is likely to succeed.

“These changes will contribute to a better balance in our immigration settings and will allow regions to access more of the people, skills and investment they need to build the local growth needed to support jobs and higher incomes.”

Also refer to our previous news item "POINTS FOR SMC AND EWV"

(Source Beehive)  

22/10/15 - Net migration hits record high as Kiwis come home

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The fall in migrant departures was mainly due to fewer New Zealand citizens leaving for Australia.

New Zealand has had a record net gain in migrants of 61,200 in the September year, driven by more Kiwis coming home and fewer leaving for Australia.

The annual gain in migrants has been setting new records for the past 14 months, and there were 118,800 arrivals in the September year and 57,600 departures.

There was a net gain of 5600 migrants in September, the second highest ever, with seasonally adjusted permanent and long-term monthly net migration fluctuating around 5100 over the past 13 months.

There was also a net gain of 100 migrants from Australia, the sixth month in a row to show a net gain, reflecting weaker economic conditions across the Tasman.

The fall in migrant departures was mainly due to fewer New Zealand citizens leaving for Australia. Departures of Kiwis to Australia fell 15 per cent to 21,500 in the September year, which is less than half the peak departures set in the December 2010 year.

Of the migrant arrivals in the September year, some 24,700 were from Australia, with two-thirds of those being New Zealand citizens returning home.

Another 14,100 were from India, with three-quarters having student visas, 13,400 were from the UK, mostly on work visas, and 10,700 were from China, with about half having student visas.

All regions had a net gain of international migrants in the September year, with most going to Auckland and then Canterbury.

The tourism boom is also soaring with overseas visitor arrivals hitting a record annual total of 3.04 million for the September year, up 9 per cent on the previous year.

Australia was the biggest source of visitors at 1.3 million followed by China at 327,900 and the US at 237,300.

Visitor arrivals for September rose 12 per cent to 217,000, with China recording the highest ever number of visitors for a September month, up 41 per cent from the same month in 2014.

(Source NZ Herald)

07/10/15 - TPP - NZ’s biggest trade deal

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On 6 October 2015, negotiations for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement were successfully concluded.

TPP is New Zealand’s biggest ever free trade deal and will deliver significant benefits for our country.

It involves 12 Asia-Pacific countries, which together account for 36 per cent of the world’s economy. It means New Zealand will now have Free Trade Agreements covering our top five trading partners – Australia, China, the United States, Japan and Korea.

TPP is a very positive agreement for New Zealand. It further improves access to international markets, which supports our exporters to grow and create new jobs, and diversify their businesses overseas.

TPP means:

• 800 million potential customers for New Zealand goods and services.
• NZ’s economy is estimated to benefit by at least $2.7 billion a year by 2030.
• It will save $259 million a year in tariffs for New Zealand exporters.
• It will support more jobs and higher incomes, and allow New Zealand exporters to sell more products and services to the world.
• $28 billion of New Zealand goods and services were exported to TPP countries last year – that’s around 40 per cent of New Zealand’s overall exports.
• Tariffs will be eliminated on 93 per cent of New Zealand’s exports to the United States, Japan, Canada, Mexico and Peru.

Not being in TPP would put the New Zealand economy and our businesses at a competitive disadvantage compared to other countries.
TPP, like any free trade agreement, will go through New Zealand’s Parliamentary processes and is expected to come into force within two years.

(Source Beehive, John Key, Tim Groser)

01/10/15 - Forget the credit crunch - food is the new global issue

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Forget the credit crunch and oil, the new global crisis is food - and we're going to hear a lot more about it in the future, says Professor Paul Moughan from Massey University.

Moughan was the keynote speaker at this morning's New New Zealand Forum held by Westpac and Massey University, where he discussed the pressure that expected population growth was likely to put on food availability as well as the opportunities this provided for New Zealand.

"We have an amazing opportunity in this country to help educate the world in all those areas that are going to be required to meet this [food] challenge," Moughan said. "The Minister for Science talks about high-tech manufacturing and the need for New Zealand to get into computers and all this stuff, but we're good at agriculture - we should be experts in IT and agriculture," he said. "We have a comparative advantage and we need to build on this."

Currently the world has around seven billion people and by 2050 this is estimated to reach nine or ten billion with the bulk of this growth coming from developing countries.

"It's estimated that the world needs to produce something like 70 per cent more food by 2050," Moughan said "That's a large increase in food production - almost a doubling. But we don't only have to produce more, we have to produce better food - in the sense of more nutriticious food," he said.

According to the World Health Organisation, close to a billion people in the world are undernourished, and with food and beverage New Zealand's largest export sector, the country was well placed to innovate around food production to be more efficient.

"In 2014 we produced $30 billion worth of agricultural food exports which was 59 per cent of total export outputs," Moughan said.

"Food and agriculture is the engine of New Zealand's economic growth and it will remain that way for some time to come. "There's a real opportunity I believe to boost innovation capacity in food production."

Moughan said New Zealand was already leading the way in areas such as functional foods - foods that have a potentially positive effect on health beyond basic nutrition. One such example which Moughan had helped develop was a product called Anlene. The milk product had been clinically designed to help prevent osteoporosis.

According to Moughan, New Zealand's agricultural and scientific expertise put it in the perfect position to take advantage of the opportunities and be leading in the sector.

(Source NZ Herald, Holly Ryan )

25/09/15 - Pope's immigration message draws praise, criticism from advocacy groups

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WASHINGTON — Immigrant rights advocates were reinvigorated by Pope Francis's plea to Congress to welcome migrants, but proponents of tougher immigration laws said they doubt the pontiff's message will have a lasting impact on lawmakers.

Pope Francis, born in Argentina to Italian immigrants, made a strong plea to Congress to allow immigrants into the "land of dreams" and implored them to reject "a mindset of hostility."

"On this continent ... thousands of persons are led to travel north in search of a better life for themselves and for their loved ones, in search of greater opportunities," the pope said. "Is this not what we want for our own children? We must not be taken aback by their numbers, but rather view them as persons, seeing their faces and listening to their stories, trying to respond as best we can to their situation. To respond in a way which is always humane, just and fraternal."

The pontiff is seeking a change in the tone of the debate, which has become especially vitriolic in the Republican presidential primary race, said Jeanne Atkinson, executive director of the Catholic Legal Immigration Network Inc. GOP front-runner Donald Trump has drawn criticism for characterizing undocumented Mexican immigrants as rapists and murderers.

"I think (the pope) is seeking a change in tone and how we talk about human beings," Atkinson said. "He challenged Congress to cooperate and come up with humane immigration reform."

Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, said he was relieved that the pope didn't use the words "comprehensive immigration reform," which have become synonymous with proposals to offer a pathway to citizenship for many of the nation's 11 million undocumented immigrants. The center opposes most efforts to give legal status to undocumented immigrants.

Although the pontiff didn't get specific about immigration legislation, he "essentially called for unlimited immigration" by telling Congress not to be taken aback by the huge number of immigrants seeking to come to the U.S. from Central America and other regions, Krikorian said.

"I'm just afraid that the pope's perspective seems to be that there should be no limits on the right of immigrants to come to the United States," Krikorian said, adding that he was surprised that Pope Francis devoted nearly four paragraphs to immigration and barely mentioned abortion.

The pope spoke to a Republican-led Congress that has been at odds with President Obama over immigration.

Congressional leaders have taken a hard-line approach to the issue, calling for tougher enforcement of immigration laws and stepped-up deportation of undocumented immigrants. Obama has taken executive action to allow many immigrants who came here as children to apply for legal status and work permits. He has offered the same protection to the undocumented parents of U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents. Republican lawmakers have challenged his actions in court.

Lynn Tramonte, deputy director of America's Voice, said the immigration reform movement was re-energized by the pope's visit.

"It's been a rough summer with all of the diatribes against immigrants that we've been seeing on TV," she said. "To have somebody come with a positive message is very important for us. It reminds us that we are on the right side of history, even though the U.S. is stuck in a pretty dark time in terms of Republican politics."

Roy Beck, executive director of NumbersUSA, which seeks to reduce U.S. immigration levels, said the pope's message can be interpreted in several different ways.

"Depending on your point of view, you could say his message was to take in all the immigrants," Beck said. "But he also said to try to respond as best as we can to their situation. But what is that exactly? It leaves a lot of room for interpretation."

Advocates on both sides agreed that the pope's speech is unlikely to have any immediate impact on Congress.

"Some of the politicians have been quoted as suggesting that maybe he could jump-start comprehensive immigration reform, like raising Lazarus from the dead," Beck said. "I think they would be really stretching to say he did anything like that."

Atkinson said she hopes people who watched the speech will help change lawmakers' minds over time.

"It's hard to imagine that even something as powerful as the pope's address will change the hearts and minds of people who demonize immigrants and oppose immigration reform efforts," she said. "But I'm hoping the people listening around the country will reach out to their members of Congress and say this is something that needs to be addressed."

(Source USAToday, Erin Kelly)

25/09/15 - Auckland's cheapest houses getting cheaper

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The price of an entry-level house has dropped in Auckland for the third successive month, suggesting the city's property market has finally peaked, according to a new report.

Combined with a drop in interest rates, this is being heralded as good news for the city's beleaguered first home buyers, interest.co.nz's Home Loan Affordability Report says.

In the overheated Auckland market the average lower quartile (the cheapest 25 per cent of housing in the region) selling price peaked at $616,500 in May.

It then declined in each of the following months, to $600,700 in August.

For all of New Zealand, the lower quartile price peaked at $308,500 in March and has since remained within a fairly narrow range, to end up at $299,125 in August.

The August lower quartile price was below its peak in 10 of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand's (REINZ) 12 sales regions.

In Wellington it peaked at $327,700 in February and was down to $311,500 in August and in Canterbury/Westland it peaked at $354,900 in April and was $350,600 in August.

Overall the figures suggest the prices for more affordable properties have flattened or declined slightly in recent months.

But in Nelson and Marlborough, the lower quartile hit an all-time high of $308,800 in August, and in Hawkes Bay, August's lower quartile price of $224,900 was equal to a peak in February.

"It is it good news for first home buyers because the easing in prices has occurred at the same as recent falls in mortgage interest rates, which has had a substantial impact on the cost of buying a home at the lower quartile selling price, particularly in Auckland," the report says.

"The average two year fixed mortgage rate offered by the major banks has declined in each of the last three months and was 5.08% in August, the lowest it had been since ... 2002."

According to the Home loan Affordability Report, a combination of easing lower quartile prices and falling mortgage rates would reduce mortgage payments on a lower quartile priced home in Auckland from $821.83 a week in May to $759.04 a week in August, a saving of $62.79 a week "for a typical first home buying couple."

A typical first home buying couple is defined as being a couple aged between 25 and 29.

"The latest figures are consistent with recent reports suggesting that many residential investors have been selling their properties as near term prospects for further capital gains recede," the report says.

According to REINZ, sales volumes have increased in almost all areas of New Zealand in the three months from June to August this year, compared to the same time last year.

The biggest increase was seen in the Waikato, where the number of sales increased 96 per cent, followed by Coromandel at 91 per cent, Northland at 74 per cent and Bay of Plenty at 64 per cent.

REINZ chief executive Colleen Milne said Coromandel was opening up as another suburb of Auckland, with a two hour ferry ride to the city.

(Source NZ Herald, Susan Strongman)

22/09/15 - Drought and wildfires a concern ahead of long hot summer

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A long hot summer is coming, and while that's good news for barbecues and backyard cricket, farmers and rural firefighters are preparing to battle drought and wildfires.

Forecasters predict this summer's El Nino weather pattern will be one of the top three or four driest on New Zealand record.

The previous three strongest El Ninos - 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 - all resulted in droughts.

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) are forecasting that this summer could be just as bad.

The worst hit areas will be the northern parts of the North Island and eastern areas of both islands.

"We think that this El Nino - and it's already very strong - has a distinct possibility of being a top three, top four El Nino," said Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino.

While Niwa won't go as far as predicting drought, they say there is "an elevated risk" of drought.

Rural firefighters and farmers are now being told to prepare for the worst.

Equipment is being readied, staff trained, and awareness campaigns are being launched in danger areas, according to National Rural Fire Officer Kevin O'Connor.

"Around the country, rural fire authorities are already actively planning for this coming fire season which is certainly fronting up to be pretty dry and pretty extreme," he said.

Fire restrictions and bans will likely be imposed earlier than usual.

Forestry companies and rural communities are being encouraged to prepare now.

"If farmers and foresters want to burn, they should think about doing it in the next month, and get some advice from their local rural fire authority," Mr O'Connor said.

Farmers need to be checking their records or asking neighbours for advice in order to prepare for the big dry, Federated Farmers' spokeswoman for adverse events Katie Milne said.

"It's all about having plans and strategies in place and being aware that things could be very bad," she said.

Lifestyle farmers also need to ensure they have enough feed for their pets, Ms Milne said, or else be prepared to move them on.

If the drought begins to take its toll on farmers, they should seek help.

"Droughts can be insidious when it's day in day out, and you can't do anything about watching your income and assets not doing much," Ms Milne said.

"It's important that we stick together."

Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy said he will be "keeping a close eye" on how the El Nino develops.

He echoed Federated Farmers' position that carefully planning for the possible drought is key.

"Farmers should continue work with their advisers and industry bodies who are best placed to provide expert advice that is appropriate to their needs on how best to prepare."

KEY INFORMATION TO SUPPORT FARMER DECISION MAKING

• Rural Support Trusts - 0800 787 254 for information and support.
• DairyNZ - 0800 4 DAIRY NZ (0800 4 324 7969) for the specific DairyNZ Farmer Information Service. Specific drought management information is available on their website.
• Beef + Lamb - 0800 BEEFLAMB (0800 233 352) for specific guidance for Beef + Lamb farmers. Specific drought management information available on their website.
• Ministry for Primary Industries - What is a medium scale adverse event, and what does it mean? Find out on their website.
• Federated Farmers of NZ - 0800 DROUGHT (0800 376 844) for the Feed list (for matching feed supply/demand). Online specific drought support.
• Rural Women New Zealand - 0800 256 467. For local community events and support visit their website.
• NIWA seasonal outlooks.
• MetService's Monthly Outlook.                     (Source: Federated Farmers)

(Source NZME, Kurt Bayer)

19/09/15 - NZ strength slows the Tasman drift

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Australians say Kiwi influx will stay low for at least two years

The performance of the Australian and New Zealand economies has an important impact on a number of areas, particularly the labour sector and our red hot housing market.

There is usually a large net migration flow from New Zealand to Australia when the Australian economy outperforms us. This normally reduces the demand for New Zealand residential property.

When the New Zealand economy outperforms Australia, the net migration outflow slows dramatically and has a positive impact on NZ housing demand.

What do the recently released June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures tell us about the relative performance of the Australasian economies?

Australia's June quarter GDP figures showed that the economy grew by 0.2 per cent compared with the March quarter and by 2 per cent compared with the June 2014 quarter (see table).

The low level of growth is indicative of an economy struggling under the weight of depressed commodity prices, particularly iron ore and coal prices.

Employment levels have increased but income growth has been fairly flat year on year. This has had a subdued impact on consumer spending.

Australia has had 13 consecutive quarters with economic growth below 1 per cent - a disappointing performance for an economy that has derived huge benefits from China's rapid economic growth since the early 1990s.

New Zealand's June quarter GDP figures, which were released on Thursday, showed the economy grew by 0.4 per cent compared with the previous quarter and by 2.4 per cent compared with the three months ended June 2014.

The quarter-on-quarter figures, which were below market expectations of 0.6 per cent, reflect a general economic activity slowdown. However, there were pockets of strength, particularly in residential property and the business services sector.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) latest economic forecasts released on September 10 show that the central bank is forecasting GDP growth between 0.5 per cent and 0.7 per cent, on a quarter-to-quarter basis, through to the end of 2016. This represents an annual growth rate of around 2 to 2.5 per cent.

The RBNZ had a number of observations about the domestic economy, including:

"Lower projected export receipts are a key reason for the softer outlook for domestic demand. Soft rural spending and cuts to on-farm investment contribute to business investment falling."

"Weaker demand throughout the rest of the economy, as well as increased import costs from the lower exchange rate, are also weighing on the investment outlook."

"Households in the wider economy are generally expected to maintain their level of spending."

"Low interest rates, the strong net inflow of migrants and related strength in the housing market, and low world oil prices are expected to support consumption."

"Overall, annual consumption growth is forecast to slow to around 2 per cent" but "one of the risks to this projection is that households pull back their consumption more".

The RBNZ is forecasting slower economic growth but it is still expected to remain in excess of 2 per cent on a year-on-year basis. The bank believes the growth rate could be stronger than 2 per cent if export prices pick up but will fall below 2 per cent if personal consumption wanes.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is forecasting an increase in the country's growth rate from 2 per cent per annum at present to the 2 to 3 per cent range over the next 18 months. This is slightly higher than the RBNZ's forecasts but the two predictions are within the margin of error.

The RBA's forecasts are based on a number of assumptions including:

• "Large falls in mining investments, which are offset by continued growth in resource exports."
• "Consumption growth is expected to rise and dwelling investment is forecast to remain strong."
• "This increase in household demand, as well as the response of net exports to the exchange rate depreciation, is expected to support a pick-up in non-mining business investment from 2016/17."

But the RBA's most interesting comment - as far as New Zealand is concerned - is that "the lower level of net immigration will persist for the next two years, in part because labour market conditions in Australia are expected to remain weaker than those in countries that have traditionally been a source of skilled, prime-age immigrants, such as New Zealand".

In other words, the Australian central bank believes employment conditions will remain more attractive in NZ and encourage New Zealanders to stay at home.

This situation is reflected in a number of statistics showing that New Zealand has achieved job growth of 3 per cent over the past 12 months compared with 1.1 per cent in Australia. NZ's average weekly earnings have grown by 3.2 per cent, in contrast to 2 per cent across the Tasman, and our unemployment rate is 5.9 per cent compared with 6.2 per cent in Australia.

The figures are even more impressive, from a New Zealand perspective, over the past three years:

The New Zealand economy has expanded by 8.1 per cent since mid-2012 compared with Australia's 7 per cent growth rate.

New Zealand has created 7.3 per cent more jobs over this 36-month period compared with a 3.9 per cent jobs growth rate across the Tasman.

New Zealand wages and salaries have increased by 8.3 per cent compared with 9.9 per cent in Australia but the latter's growth rate has slowed recently.

The superior performance of the New Zealand labour market has had a huge influence on migration trends, with New Zealand experiencing a net migration outflow to Australia of only 843 in the past 12 months, compared with 39,849 three years ago.

The overall impact of this is New Zealand now has a total annual net migration inflow of 59,639 from all countries, compared with an outflow of 3799 three years ago.

Last, but not least, is the impact that these economic figures have had on our housing market.

New Zealand housing prices have risen 10.7 per cent over the past 12 months, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, compared with 6.9 per cent in Australia.

Over the past three years, house prices have risen by 25.7 per cent and 22.1 per cent in New Zealand and Australia respectively.

But the real standout has been Auckland, where the median price has soared 46.4 per cent over the past three years. By comparison, Sydney house prices increased by 37.2 per cent over the same 36-month period, Melbourne 16.6 per cent, Brisbane 12.7 per cent and Perth 13.8 per cent.

There is an argument that New Zealand, particularly Auckland, is doing too well at present, particularly compared with most Australian cities.

This places the RBNZ in a difficult position. The country's 0.4 per cent inflation rate suggests there there is further scope for it to cut its OCR (official cash rate) below 2.75 per cent. However, buoyant Auckland house prices make this a relatively high-risk decision.

It's strange to say, but we almost need more Australian economic and job growth to encourage New Zealanders to move across the Tasman and take some of the pressure off the red hot Auckland residential property market.

(Source Brian Gaynor, NZ Herald, Brian Gaynor is an executive director of Milford Asset Management)